How the Rest of the Schedule Breaks Down
Entering conference season, there was one real goal at the forefront of all Kansas fans' minds; start out 6-0. Besides the lofty, longterm goal of winning the Big 12 for the fifth straight year and the 7th in 8 years, that was the primary objective. Just use the easy opening to the Big 12 Conference slate, get some confidence, jump out to 6-0, and we'll move on.
With a quick turnaround for big Monday against Baylor, the game we'd all been waiting for since the lights went off in the Breslin Center January 10th, we had little time to think big picture. We had just spent more than three weeks trying to get to 6-0 for this very game; we weren't going to blow it by looking ahead. So, we just took it in.
And while Baylor isn't playing its best basketball, a win is a win. We won. We're now 7-0. And with a couple of recent near-stumbles by Boomer Sooner (another one tonight, where they losing with under 3 minutes left in Norman against Texas A&M), winning the conference really doesn't seem all that farfetched. We're just a half-game back,
But, no matter how possible it may be, we still have nine games to play. And with a nice little break between games, I'd figure now would be a tremendous time to take a glance at that road we have left to travel.
Looking at each game, all nine of 'em, after the jump...
vs. Oklahoma State -- Obviously, we're going to go much further in-depth later on Friday and early Saturday, but this game doesn't worry me all that much, anymore. Coming into conference play, I was fairly convinced that the Cowboys were a damn good basketball team, a legitimate threat to win a bunch of games (including against us in Allen) and a NCAA Tournament team. Damn, was I wrong. They just aren't nearly as good as I thought they were. They have played terribly, by-and-large, in conference play, nearly losing at home to a pretty awful Texas Tech team on Wednesday night. They still have a bunch of talent, and the James Anderson, Obi Muonelo Byron Eaton trio is as dangerous as any in the league. But their complete lack of size hurts them, big time, and with the backing of homecourt advantage, I don't think we lose. KenPom % chance of winning: 83%
@ Missouri -- It's fun to hate on the Tigers, and all, but this game is, easily, the second-hardest the rest of the way out. Besides our trip down to Norman, which is looking easier, there are no trips more difficult than our trip to Mizzou Arena this coming Monday. Not only are they a really, really, really good team (incredibly underrated, nationwide, just like us), but they also just might have a legitimate home crowd to support them, and we all know how much they hate us. In all honesty, this could be the biggest Missouri basketball game in 5 years, and, honestly, they might be a better team than us. I don't think so, but it isn't nearly the talent differential that usually exists. Demarre Carroll and Leo Lyons likely form the best frontcourt duo in the conference, and their guards are dangerous enough to not just let you pack it in. They'll still lose some games that are inexcusable, but they are good enough to beat anyone in the country. KenPom % chance of winning: 30%
@ Kansas State -- After not losing in Bramlage for 24 years, there is a decent shot we lose there two years in a row. Sure, K-State isn't all that good, and sure, they started out 0-4 in conference play, but they have been on fire lately. As hiphop continues to point out over at Oread Boom Kings, their three-point shooting was astronomical in their upset wins over Mizzou and Texas, but still. Denis Clemente is freakin' dangerous, and they have a host of other players (Jacob Pullen, Dominique Sutton and even Jamar Samuels) that could go off. I don't think we lose, but if the Powercats can win on Saturday in College Station and against Texas Tech at home, they would be on a six-game winning streak. They would still have an outside shot at sneaking into the NCAAs. And, just like Mizzou, we all know just how much they love beating us. After typing that paragraph, I'm more scared about this game than I was. KenPom % chance of winning: 51%
vs. Iowa State -- After two of the three most difficult remaining games (yes, @ K-State is more dangerous, to me, than vs. Texas; we don't lose in Allen, baby), we get a break with two consecutive home games against North teams. Sure, Iowa State and Nebraska are both dangerous, but I really, really don't think we lose either game. Brackins likely won't go ballistic like up in Ames, and there won't be that whole Hilton Magic to deal with. This game could be a blowout; although, I expected the home game against Colorado to be a blowout, too, so whatever. KenPom % chance of winng: 95%
vs. Nebraska -- Everything that last paragraph said, except talk about playing like shit for an entire half not likely to occur again, as opposed to Craig Brackins playing awesome. Nebraska is a better team than the Clones, but it shouldn't make too much of a difference. KenPom % chance of winning: 87%
@ Oklahoma -- Nearly all season, this has been marked off as an automatic loss, just like our football game down in Norman. However, the more I see of Boomer Sooner, the more I am positive we can win. In fact, I'm really, really convinced to say the game in Missouri will be tougher, but I can't get beyond that shitting of the bed in Manhattan. When you contain Blake Griffin, which is obviously easier said than done (particularly when discussing the team that gave up 40 to Brackins), Oklahoma becomes a very, very beatable team. And, honestly, probably the third or fourth best in the conference. We're talking non-Blake Griffin, remember. Stick Brady on Willie Warren, contain Blake on the inside, and make their second-tier players beat you. Sure, they're capable, but I'd take our non-Cole-and-Sherron players over their non-Blake-and-Willie players. Now, obviously I'm biased, but I don't much care. I'll say it right now; we will win this game. KenPom % chance of winning: 33%
vs. Missouri -- Our chance for redemption, if we lose next Monday, or a chance to still sweep MIzzou in their strongest hardball season in years, despite being in a "rebuilding year" ourselves. Missouri is a really good team, and given the homecourt advantage maybe even a better one, but they aren't good enough to beat us in Allen. The crowd should be rocking, too, so there's that. The extra noise usually made for Tiger games, combined with the potential Big 12 Title implications, combined with Missouri's rise to prominence, Allen Field House should be shaking. KenPom % chance of winning: 61%
@ Texas Tech -- The Red Raiders are the second-worst team in the Big 12, I'm fairly certain, but we always seem to have trouble down there in Lubbock. For whatever reason, we just can't seem to win down there. I think we do this year, which isn't all that surprising. We better, because if we lose the Big 12 because we lost to Pat freakin' Knight, I'll lose it. And they do have some players, just not enough to really make it relevant. KenPom % chance of winning: 83%
vs. Texas -- Coming in, this was supposed to be a huge test. After watching the Longhorn's last two games, I don't think so. Sure, they are still plenty dangerous, but we are a better team. And, for the billionth time, it usually takes someone special to beat us in Allen. Texas could, sure, but I don't think we'll fall. A.J. Abrams can shoot the hell out of the ball, and Damion James is awesome, and Gary Johnson is becoming a real low-post presence, but that isn't enough. They don't have the game-breakers of years past (T.J. Ford, Kevin Durant, D.J. Augustin, P.J. Tucker just to name a few), and it's Senior Day, too. We aren't losing on Matt Kleinmann's last home game, people. KenPom % chance of winning: 76%
In case you were following along, the chances, according to KenPom, of winning all 9 remaining games and going undefeated in conference are 1.32%. So, if we played out the remains of our conference schedule 100 times, we'd go 9-0 once. Assuming the Missouri and Oklahoma road games are losses, what are the chances we go undefeated in the other 7? 13.5%. Not terrible, really. So, combining the two, and we have nearly a 15% chance to lose two-or-less games. Kind of.
Just in case you were interested, KenPom projects us to go 13-3. He only has us "losing" the two obvious ones (@ Mizzou, @ Oklahoma), but essentially is predicting we lose another one along the way.
Now, beyond the analysis part, here's how I see the rest of the season breaking down:
vs. Okie State -- W
@ Missouri -- L
@ K-State -- L
vs. Iowa State -- W
vs. Nebraska -- W
@ Oklahoma -- W
vs. Missouri -- W
@ Texas Tech -- W
vs. Texas -- W
Obviously, I'm somewhat of a homer. But what can I say; I wanted to put us down for an K-State W, like I said. I really think we win that game, too, but I highly, highly doubt we go 15-1 in conference play. Obviously, the one prediction that sticks out is the @ Oklahoma W, but I think we show up big-time in that one. Really, I think we could win all of them. Swear. It seems weird to say, but this really is a down year in the Big 12 (it's taken me awhile to admit it, but I'm completely willing to acknowledge it, now), and while we aren't nearly as good as last year's team was, we aren't all that much worse relatve to the other Big 12 teams. I'm still not convinced we're not the best.
What are your thoughts, though? Think we go 7-2 the rest of the way? 8-1? 9-0 for a perfect conference record? Stumble to 6-3 or worse?
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Comments
A couple things
The first things I noticed without reading verbatim yet, they say their is a higher chance of winning @ OU than winning @ MU. Never thought I’d hear that this year, but I can see the reasons why. Now, I’ll read it and have more…
I think the Texas game is going to be alot tougher than you make it sound. Yeah, they lost to KSU and MU back-to-back, at home nonetheless. But, they are still a good team. Rick Barnes will get shit straightened out down there.
Let’s think about this MU game Monday night for just a second. Who do you take: Sherron Collins or JT Tiller? Sherron. Tyshawn Taylor or Zaire Taylor? Tyshawn. Brady Morningstar or Matt Lawrence? Even. Marcus Morris or DeMarre Carroll? Carroll. Cole Aldrich or Leo Lyons? Cole. I’m not ready to chalk this one up as a loss just yet. Sure, I’m biased. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, hates the Tiggers more than I do! I grew up with all my friends loving them, talking shit on my Jayhawks. 85% of my friends back home are Tigger fans. I hate them more than anybody else does. But, in all honesty, we CAN win this game. And, I honestly will be disappointed, and a little surprised if we don’t.
"I just trust what he does. And he has such a great ass..... er... grasp" -Chase "Booger" DanielS on Colt McCoy's "Ass-ets"
I agree completely.
We absolutley, without question, CAN win Monday night against Mizzou.
But I just don’t think we will. I think it will be a lot like last year against K-State. They will be so uber-pumped to take us on, so ready to beat the hated Gayhawks (so original, so funny), that they’ll come out and play outrageous. Just like K-State last year in Bramlage. We can win, sure, and like I said, I still think we have the better team.
But I’m planning on a loss, I’m kind of expecting a loss. I bet we lose.
We certainly can win, though, and I’ll be cheering my ass off Monday night.
Should hit four digits, again.
A couple MORE things
KCSINCE, perhaps your analysis would be more worthwhile if you knew anything about Missouri. To begin with, Matt Lawrence doesn’t start and hasn’t in over fifteen games. During the upset in Austin, for example, he played only 20 minutes. Moreover, your analysis is misguided because Missouri plays eleven players EVERY game and they are put in for extended periods of time (in other words, these aren’t spot substitutions designed to create rest for starters). Against Texas eight Missouri players played more than ten minutes and not because of foul trouble. What is my point? Missouri MAY not have the talent of Kansas, but they have as many as eleven players that could go off for 15 points in any game. The challenge for KU will be to avoid getting worn out by Missouri’s waves of QUALITY substitutions. Missouri is VERY deep…to the point of disbelief.
mpfische...
welcome, thanks for some further insight on MU…so I assume you are a Missouri Fan???
Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.
denverjhawk...
yes…a missouri fan…but a respecful, honest one…i, for example, don’t think Missouri has much of a chance at KU…maybe 10%…but I don’t think people appreciate just how good MU is this year (albeit maddeningly inconsistent). The original post by KCSINE, for example, completely ignores Zaire Taylor the starting point guard for Missouri who started for two years at Delaware and averaged double figures before coming to Missouri.
In addition, the combined records of the teams that have beaten Missouri is 66 – 20. The worst of those loses — at KSU and at Neb — appear now to be loses on the road to teams that will finish in the top half of the conference and from that perspective, such loses are routine. The other loses were to Xavier and Illinois. Missouri lost in Puerto Rico to Xavier by four points afer Missouri shot 15 – 31 from the line. And as for the victories….USC by 10 (neutral)…Cal by 30 (home)…OKST (road)…Georgia (road)…Texas (road)…Baylor by 10 (home). At home, Missouri is 13 – 0 and beating people by an average of 25 or so…and thats against teams that don’t bring 13,000 nuts to Columbia…best of luck on Monday…but I just don’t see KU winning just as I don’t see MU winning at KU.
respectful and honest is welcome here and to be honest with you...
I think we all have a lot of respect for what MU has done this year so far and I think as you can see several of us feel this is going to be a very tough, but not impossible game for Kansas to win. I’m just not sure we have all had a chance to really dissect the team at this point which thankfully you have helped us out with a little more in your posts.
In KC’s defense I think that like me he was pretty wrapped up into football until about a a month ago. As of around the time we played Michigan State I think most of us jumped into basketball much more around here and in terms of Missouri…I think we’ve been on pins and needles trying to figure out our own team at this point and probably haven’t seen as much other action as we all would like.
So just out of curiosity two questions for you. Provided no one stumbles this weekend what do you see the two teams ranked going into this one? secondly, got a score prediction for us??
Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.
I like it...
at least the rankings part, it would be fun to have a top 25 matchup like that with MU on Big Monday…I’m sure the Antlers would be out in force for that one.
but, I hope the score prediction is wrong : )
Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.
Welcome
mpfische – feel free to join us on the open game thread on Monday. Should be rockin’
Appreciate your input and some of us a quietly pulling for you guys to do well this year. (I stress some and *quietly*)
One other thing...
I don’t know if you checked out Esteban’s fanpost, but you might find it interesting that a majority right now is happy with the improved Missouri team. I think we enjoyed Norm Stewart and the battles his teams provided more than we knew. It took Quin Snyder to really make us appreciate the days when Stormin Norman made Missouri a worth adversary.
Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.
I'm with you here...
and I think all the losses are excusable, but let’s not call Nebraska and KSU top half teams just yet….
And you’re more than welcome to revel in the wins at Texas and OSU, even the USC and Cal one – all were commendable – but let’s not hang any hats on a 7 point win over Georgia, considering they’ve yet to win an SEC game, fired their coach and also lost to Loyola (IL) and Texas A&M Corpus Christi…
by hiphopopotamus on Feb 6, 2009 11:37 AM CST up reply actions
Great Breakdown....My thought is this...
I see @ Missouri and @ OU as losses right now. Now if we can win @ Missouri that changes a lot but right now I feel like we lose those 2 and 1 more somewhere. Likely either @ KSU or at home against Texas.
Final take 6-3 from here on out…could swing one game both ways very easily though.
I think 13-3 would give us an outside shot of sharing the Big12 again too so it’s not a bad scenario.
Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.
I think we'll have to deal with the rivalry factor
So far this season we’ve always turned the ball over consistently in the first half. Most times we’ve been able to stop teams when they get on the fast break and limit points off turnovers, but Missouri is the best team in the conference at finishing on the break (they also get the most practice). I just don’t like the ability of all of our guys to make good decisions against a constant 11-man press. Also, their frontcourt is slightly undersized, but extremely athletic and quick to trap. Now, if the Morris twins really have arrived, then it might get a little easier for Cole to pass out of the double team. As is, when the double comes quickly cole is a bit unreliable getting rid of the ball, although I think a lot of this could be solved by having a “4” in the right position.
That said, I think we’re still in the game late, and if Sherron goes off for 25+ points, I’d still take us.
by 2.1 seconds left on Feb 6, 2009 8:31 AM CST up reply actions
So... much... love...
Not only are they a really, really, really good team (incredibly underrated, nationwide, just like us), but they also just might have a legitimate home crowd to support them, and we all know how much they hate us. In all honesty, this could be the biggest Missouri basketball game in 5 years, and, honestly, they might be a better team than us. I don’t think so, but it isn’t nearly the talent differential that usually exists. Demarre Carroll and Leo Lyons likely form the best frontcourt duo in the conference, and their guards are dangerous enough to not just let you pack it in. They’ll still lose some games that are inexcusable, but they are good enough to beat anyone in the country.
This mutual respect thing is freaking me out.
http://www.RockMNation.com
Home of "Thrust Nunchuk Upward"
We're trying
to keep ourselves humble. Plus, you guys are pretty good this year. This is the most I’ve dreaded a game in Columbia since I was in school and guys trotted out Crudup.
Great call on Crudup!!
Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.
I'm all for homerism...
but predicting a win in Norman and losses in both Columbia and Manhattan is an interesting way to see this thing play out, to say the least.
I too was shocked about
the KSU loss. I really don’t think we repeat ourselves in Manhattan. BTW, some of that 24 year winstreak went back to Ahearn…you might be too young to remember that place but it was a rockin barn back in the day.
Yeah, I realized that after I typed it.
Oh, well. 24 years in Mahattan, like 20 in Bramlage.
And as far as losing in Manhattan, I really don’t think we lose. But I’m becoming confident we win in Norman, and I am almost positive we lose somewhere else along the way. @ K-State is the toughest game left, IMO, not being played in Norman or Columbia, so I picked that one. It could just as easily be in Lubbock, or in Allen against Texas (or even Nebraska, I suppose).
Basically, I’m saying that I bet we lose to Mizzou in Columbia and lose another one along the way. I picked @ KSU, but wouldn’t be surprised at all if we win, and we lose somewhere else along the line.
Nice analysis
We’re sure to hit a bad stretch where we lose a couple so I think 13-3 is probably right.
by I need more Esteban on Feb 6, 2009 12:21 PM CST reply actions

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