KU now controls it's destiny to win another Big 12 title. All winnable games left to put us at 15-1. 2 very tough home games loom, though, with a huge rival and a team trying to fight it's way into a better seed and not get pushed out into bubble territory in Texas.
Since my last conference update, a little over a week ago, a couple new teams have pushed themselves into talk of moving into bubble status. Oklahoma St. and Texas A&M, with great runs to end the season could move into that category. It would most likely take them winning out, and then making it to the title game of the Big 12 tourney.
Here we go:
Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri
All three are looking at top 4 seeds, with strong finishes, I think one or both of KU & Missouri could sneak into the 3 spot
Win the games you're supposed to and you're in:
TX stands at 8-5 right now with games left @ OK St., Baylor, @ Kansas. Win @ OK St. and home to Baylor and a 10-6 final record gets Texas in with their strong non-con schedule. (wins against Villanova, UCLA, @ Wisconsin and a couple good losses in ND and Mich. St.). Another possibility is a loss @ OK St and Kansas, and a 9-7 finish is what Texas would face. Honestly, even if Texas lost their first game of the Big 12 tourney, they'd still sneak in, but if this scenario plays out, I know that Texas fans would really want at least 1 win in the Big 12 tourney to solidy themselves.
Win out and make it to the Big 12 title game and you've got a chance:
Oklahoma St. (7-6), Texas A&M (6-7)
We'll start with OK. St. They finish with Texas, KSU, and @ Oklahoma. As of now, they're 7-6 mark in the Big 12 isn't against any premiere teams in the league, that hurts them. If they won out against 2 ranked teams and another in the top half of the decision, they would put themselves into bubble status. 3 wins in the Big 12 title game would make them one of the hottest teams in the Big 12 and I think would definitely get them in. The good news about OK. St.'s non-con is they have all good losses, vs. Mich St., vs Gonzaga, and @ Washington. The bad news is they don't have any non-con premiere wins.
Outlook: I don't think so if Griffin is healthy
Texas A&M has won 3 straight to put themselves into the discussion. They finish with ISU, @ Col and home to Missouri. 2 very winnable games and then one at home that would be a 2nd premiere win in the Big 12. If they could make it to the title game of the Big 12, then coupled with a few good non-con wins (Arizona, Alabama, LSU), then I think A&M could sneak into one of the last spots. We all know the tourney committee looks at the last 10 games, if this scenario played out, A&M would be 9-1 in their last 10 going into the title game of the Big 12. I think that could get them in.
Outlook: Probably not but better odds than OK. St.
I almost didn't put them in here but the one thing K-State has going for them is that they have a couple good Big 12 wins. They finish with Nebraska, @ OK St., Colorado. All very winnable games that would put them at 10-6. They have the tie-breaker with Texas so if Texas finished at 10-6 also, then K-State would get a bye in the tourney. I don't think that is such a good thing for K-State because the more wins they get, the better off they are, even if it is another one vs. Colorado. If K-State made it to the title game, knocking off either KU, MU, or OU on the way, I think they could sneak in. The problem they've got is absolutely NO good non-con wins and the 3 chances they actually had on their schedule to have a non-con win vs. another major conference (Iowa, Kentucky, Oregon), they lost.
Outlook: I doubt it and I wouldn't be surprised if they lost @ OK. St, crushing their chances.
There you have it, my prediction is the Big 12 only gets 4 teams in. I'd say the only team that I could see sneaking in is Texas A&M if they made it to the title game because of how hot they would look to the tourney committee. I really doubt it, though.