Blogpoll Ballot: Week Three

by rockchalk on Feb 23, 2009 1:32 AM CST in Kansas Jayhawk Basketball

Here we go again, with me unveiling my Top 25. As we progress, I've slowly moved away from the computers. They are still kinda-sorta my base, and I lean on them plenty, but I'm more freely moving teams up-and-down that the numbers don't say belong. A perfect example of this is LSU, which is ranked somewhere in the lower 30's when combining KenPom rankings and Sagarin's predictor. Yet, their record has them belong in the Top 25, so I slid them in. Just like me sliding the Bruins down quite a bit lower than they supposedly belong, and Oklahoma getting bumped up.

In any case, that's all. More actual analysis of the poll after the jump. And, as always, feel free to leave any-and-all comments and criticisms in the comment section, no matter what I do, people complain. And that's how it should be, really.

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Pittsburgh	2
2	Connecticut	1
3	North Carolina	1
4	Memphis	1
5	Oklahoma	1
6	Duke	3
7	Louisville	8
8	Michigan St.	1
9	Missouri	3
10	Gonzaga	2
11	Arizona St.	3
12	West Virginia	2
13	Kansas	2
14	Clemson	10
15	Purdue	5
16	UCLA	3
17	Villanova
18	Marquette	3
19	Utah	4
20	Wake Forest	4
21	Illinois	3
22	Washington	3
23	Brigham Young	9
24	Louisiana St.
25	Texas
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Xavier (#22).

A lot of it, this doesn't make perfect sense. I mean, I dropped Missouri 3 spots, among others, for doing absolutely nothing wrong. But, honestly, until I saw that delta column right there, I didn't think for a single second about last week's ranking. Louisville belonged a lot higher last week, but their blowout loss to Notre Dame really soured me on them. However, they seem to have completely recovered, so I'm back to objectively evaluating them.

Here is a quickie breakdown of the poll, in 5-pick segments...

1-5 (Pitt, UCONN, UNC, Memphis, OU)

Pitt was an easy choice at #1, despite North Carolina's higher ranking in the computer polls. Still, a loss to an average-ish team like Maryland doesn't let you bump up to #1, no matter what. Still, they aren't penalized too much, as it was only one loss, after all, and UCONN barely drops at all for losing to my current #1 team in the country. Memphis kept on winning, and Oklahoma sneaks into the Top 5 because of others' mishaps.

6-10 (Duke, Louisville, Michigan State, Missouri, Gonzaga)

Duke is higher than I'd like them to be, but I couldn't completely justify anyone else being ahead of them. I don't think they are that good of a team, but man, is their offensive impresive. Louisville, like I said, moves to where they should ahve been all along. They belong in the Top 10, are Top 10 talent-wise, and I'm kind of regretting me sliding them down so far last week. But, that 43-point loss to Notre Dame really freaked me out. Michigan State only lost in West Lafayette this week, a damn tough place to play, and deserve to be ahead of the Tigers and the Zags. Not by much, though. I nearly put both teams ahead, but couldn't quite pull the trigger. Missouri's general lack of success away from the Paige held them back, and the Zag's blowout loss to Memphis still freaks me out. And yes, I know Memphis is #4.

11-15 (ASU, West Virginia, Kansas, Clemson, Purdue)

This is an interesting mix. Two computer darlings, relative to their MSM notoriety (West Va and KU), and three teams that don't match up as well with the numbers, but have fine resumes. ASU got the nod for their recent hot streak, West Va went second because of their ungodly KP-and-Sag numbers, Kansas coming in at 13 for similar reasons. A win Monday night, and Kansas is a Top 10 team. Easy. Clemson had an embarrassing loss last Sunday that I still can't get over (@ Virginia), and Purdue is still being semi-punished for their terrible opening in the Big 10/11. Still, they are certainly a team on the rise.

16-20 (UCLA, Villanova, Marquette, Utah, Wake Forest)

UCLA had a bad loss Saturday afternoon, but the numbers still love 'em, and they have the resume to back it up (kind of, at least). Villanova had a big win Sunday afternoon in Syracuse, and besides a blowout loss in Morgantown awhile back, they've been smoking recently. Same kind of thing with Marquette, except the blowout loss was to those Wildcats from Villanova, and that was paired with a terrible loss to South Florida. Utah's on fire in the MWC, and have a pair of tremendous wins (vs. Gonzaga and a 30-point win against LSU). I'm way, way, way down on Wake, but they still have a couple of big-time victories, and deserve to be Top 20. Just barely, though.

21-25 (Illinois, Washington, BYU, LSU, Texas)

Illinois was slated for a big rise, for me at least, before scoring all of 33 points at home against Penn State. I wanted to drop them completely for that, but I didn't want to get too irrational, and they certainly deserve to stay in the Top 25. Washington nearly got swept down in LA, but they still beat USC, so that's good. They probably should be higher, given the fact they are leading the Pac 10 and I have two teams ranked above them, but whatever. BYU, my darling last week, drops for two reasons. One, I did have them too high last week (whoops), and two, they lost Saturday night to UNLV. Ouch. Still, the computer numbers love 'em, so they stay. LSU, who is hated by the stats, sneaks in based off of their 8-game win streak, their 11-1 SEC record, all of that stuff. And, finally, Texas. Their loss on Monday night makes them ranking them slightly difficult, but they had a big-time win Saturday night. Their non-con was so damn good, I'm willing to give them considerable benefit of the doubt.

And, honestly, I couldn't pick another, solitary deserving team. I toyed with Syracuse, but they just lost today at home. Xavier, I love 'em, but they've struggled incredibly as of late. Kentucky's struggled recently, too, and pretty much, after that, there are just 10-loss teams. I could have gone Cal, but they just lost to Oregon State. Arizona was actually #26 on my final ballot, but their loss tonight barely nudged them out. Boy, are they better than expected, though.

Again, any-and-all comments are appreciated.

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Comments

And, finally, just for fun...

…here is how the rankings would’ve looked if a computer spat out the results, just combining the KP rankings and Sagarin’s Predictor rankings. The lower the number, the higher you are ranked.

1) UNC
2) Pitt
3) Memphis
t-4) UCONN
t-4) Duke
6) West Virginia
7) Missouri
8) UCLA
t-9) Kansas
t-9) Louisville
11) Gonzaga
12) Arizona State
13) Michigan State
14) Clemson
15) Oklahoma
16) BYU
17) Washington
t-18) Wake Forest
t-18) Purdue
20) Villanova
21) Marquette
22) Illinois
23) Texas
24) Utah
25) LSU

Just FYI, but there would have been plenty of teams in there besides the final four-or-so. Like I said, LSU probably lies somewhere around 38ish, and Utah is certainly surpassed by some, as well. Maybe even Texas.

But, that’s how it’d come out.

Just for fun…

The largest human-movers were UCLA, who I slid down 8 spots (8 to 16) and BYU (16 to 23) on the move-down list, and Oklahoma (15 to 5) on the move-up list.

Other than that, pretty much every move was 5 spots or less.

by rockchalk on Feb 23, 2009 1:39 AM CST reply actions

Looks pretty good

I like that you’ve put in a little more human element to it than just basing it off the computers. I like the computers, but like you said, I think they should be just a starting point.

by I need more Esteban on Feb 23, 2009 12:26 PM CST reply actions

I'm curious to see...

how Memphis does in the tourney this year…they’ve won like 17 straight I believe but it just doesn’t seem they face the competition night in and night out. Obviously they do make an effort to go out and challenge themselves early but I still think a softer conference doesn’t truly prepare you for the grueling tourney run. Now clearly talent can overcome as we saw last year, but I don’t know that they are at that level again.

Actually an interesting game to me would be the Tigers vs. the Tigers…MU vs. MU…and I’m not talking about an inter squad scrimmage for Mizzou, I’m talking Memphis vs. Mizzou

Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.

by Owen on Feb 23, 2009 12:29 PM CST reply actions

Other than UCLA and Florida, they have the best NCAA record over the past three years

They have made three consecutive Elite Eights, and they might have made the FF in 2006, if they didn’t have to play UCLA in Cali.

It seems like it should hurt them, but they seem to remain focused. Maybe it also helps in that you can rest players more if needed, and they are less likely to get injured.

by sleepyhawk on Feb 23, 2009 6:58 PM CST up reply actions

They've definitely been successful....

I just am always amazed they don’t struggle with the increased competition

Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.

by Owen on Feb 24, 2009 7:04 AM CST up reply actions

LSU, who is hated by the stats, sneaks in based off of their 8-game win streak, their 11-1 SEC record, all of that stuff.

…

Xavier, I love ‘em, but they’ve struggled incredibly as of late

You mean the same Xavier team that beat LSU by 10 in Baton Rouge 4 weeks ago?

LSU lost to A&M, a semi-road game for the Tigers. They haven’t defeated any team in the top 40 in the polls or computer rankings. LSU’s best win according to Pomeroy is #42 Tennessee. Syracuse has beaten 6 teams in KP’s top 42 (Florida, KU, Memphis, Notre Dame, WVU, Georgetown).

Here is the thing about the SEC West, if it was named Conference USA, MVC, or MWC, LSU would be fighting to be on the bubble. It could just be absolute luck they are 11-1, it is possible for 4 teams of comparable quality for one to shoot out to a gaudy record. Look at No. Iowa which was 11-1 two weeks ago in the MVC and now have come back down to earth at 12-4.

Think about this way if KSU (#36 KP) was in that division they could be 11-1 or 10-2, the #2-4 teams aren’t as good as Baylor, OSU, Nebraska or A&M (which LSU couldn’t beat). Would you rank them in the top 25?

My top 25

1) Pitt
2) UNC
3) UConn
4) Memphis
5) West Virginia
6) Kansas
7) Duke
8) Louisville
9) Purdue
10) Missouri
11) ASU
12) Villanova
13) Clemson
14) OU
15) Michigan State
16) Washington
17) Wake Forest
18) Marquette
19) BYU
20) UCLA
21) Gonzaga
22) Illinois
23) Utah
24) Xavier
25) Syracuse

#4-15, could be in any order and I couldn’t really argue, other than the order of placement of KU, MU, and OU.

WVU is probably ranked too high, but playing a brutal schedule they are still playing well, while ND and G’Town have been destroyed playing equivalent schedules. ‘Cuse has played a similiar schedule, but benefitted from home and away venues that WVU has not. Also, WVU has had to play ’Ville, Pitt, and USF twice, ’Cuse got G’Town, ‘Nova, and Rugers twice. WVU reminds me of ’83 NC St., ’85 ’Nova, and ’88 KU. Not that they will necessarily make the Final Four, but they are a very good team, that aren’t barely recognized by top 25 poll voters, because they don’t realize they have played a brutal schedule. They see WVU has x amount of losses and assume they are not very good.

MSU seems too low, but they look like the 2nd best Big 10/11 team. Purdue with a healthy Hummel would leapfrog KU, but he seems injured every 3 games.

KU IMO is the best B-12 team, Missouri #2, OU #3 (even before Griffin’s concussion), so that is how I ranked them. OU impressed me with their showing in Texas, but Texas has been playing like a #45-60 team the last past three weeks, so it is difficult to gauge how good OU really is. I don’t think we will really know where OU ranks until the end of the conference tournement (especially with Griffin’s health issue).

by sleepyhawk on Feb 23, 2009 6:51 PM CST reply actions