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BlogPoll Ballot: Week Two

Here we go, with my second installment of what I think the Top 25 should look like, basically. First off, nary a glance was made towards either last week's ballot I submitted, or the end-result of Week One. I don't believe in moving teams "up" or "down", so much as merely reevaluating every week in an effort to determine, roughly, the Top 25 teams in the country.

Again, I heavily used KenPom and Sagarin (his predictor this time, though) to get to my final ballot. Sagarin's ballot, at the time of publishing, was yet to be updated for Sunday's games, so I kind of had to approximate. Later on, when those numbers become official, I'll post what the poll would've been like without any human input.

With that said, here's the poll. My reasoning for the picks after the jump...

RankTeamDelta
1 Connecticut
2 North Carolina 1
3 Pittsburgh 1
4 Oklahoma 2
5 Memphis
6 Missouri 4
7 Michigan St. 1
8 Arizona St. 13
9 Duke 7
10 West Virginia 1
11 Kansas 6
12 Gonzaga 6
13 UCLA 4
14 Brigham Young 11
15 Louisville 8
16 Wake Forest 3
17 Villanova 1
18 Illinois 6
19 Washington 3
20 Purdue 6
21 Marquette 2
22 Xavier 7
23 Utah
24 Clemson 12
25 Texas
Last week's ballot

 

Dropped Out: Butler (#20), Syracuse (#23).

 

 

Star-divide

Because, more this time than last time, I used my own, human brain on some of these. Like, despite UCLA being ranked #7, I dropped them because of their two-loss week. West Virginia, the #6 team according to KenPom, was dropped to #10 because of their high-loss total (7, without a single bad loss, of course). Oklahoma was slid way, way up to #4, and that still might not be high enough for some of you. Their numbers aren't impressive, but they are 25-1. For the most part, though, I generally stayed around the same vicinity as the rankings. Wake might be lower than most, but their losses to NC State and Georgia Tech (who have a combined three non-Wake conference wins between the two, one of which was NC State over GT) are just absolutely awful. The Illinois-Washington-Purdue situation was terribly difficult to work out, for me; all are essentially identical, resume-wise. All are next to each other in KP, all are similar according to Sagarin, and all have similar resume's. I ended up favoring the Illini because of their season-sweep of the Boilermakers, and they beat Washington because of a lack of a bad loss (the Huskies' season-opening L to Portland, who is admittedly better than expected, coming back to bite them in the ass). Washington over Purdue was tricky, and it was mostly just a gut thing, really. I think the Huskies are a better team, so they got the nod at #20.

Any comments or criticisms or anything go in the comment section. Last week, we got some excellent points of view on plenty of different arguments. Hopefully, we can stimulate some more discussion with this one.

Editor's Note: K-State postgame content, and the Big 12 Roundup, will pop up sometime tomorrow, I promise. Just wait...

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Comments

Display:

Personally

I think you could drop Kansas and Missouri at least 3 spots.

Insanity is just a state of mind.

by giants9107 on Feb 16, 2009 2:31 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I'm probably in the same boat on those two...

Missouri around 10…Kansas 13-15

although I do want to say I get how you’re arriving at your rankings and I like it way better than the conventional wisdom of you lose you drop. That said I still think right now maybe MU and KU are a touch high.

Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.

by Denverjhawk on Feb 16, 2009 8:28 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

agreed

No way Mizzou is in the top ten yet, they have been playing well but 12-14 seems about right. KU lost this week to a good team but also won a good road game so they should be between 15-18 I would guess.

by I need more Esteban on Feb 16, 2009 9:19 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, even though we barely lost to missouri

I still think we’re a top-15 team, which is funny to me, because at the beginning of the year when my friends asked me how I thought we’d do, I said that I thought we’d be a top-15 team by March with a good shot of getting to the Sweet Sixteen (and then, who knows?). Now I think that by March we may be better than that.
I love me some Bill Self

by 2.1 seconds left on Feb 16, 2009 8:09 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Just curious,

does the Duke drop include the loss yesterday?

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Feb 16, 2009 11:17 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yes.

Numbers-wise, they are still at #3 in both.

I didn’t want to punish them too much for losing to UNC, even if it was in Cameron, but I dropped them a bunch for losing to BC.

I would have dropped them further, but didn’t really think anyone else belonged to go there.

by rockchalk on Feb 16, 2009 1:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Here is the final thing:

Link

I won both the “Mr. Bold Award”, which means I had the most different ballot, and the “Coulter Award”, which basically means I was the most homer. And yet, the second one I can’t believe I won; as Jerry Hinnen, the guy who writes the recaps says, five other bloggers actually ranked Kansas above where I did. So, whatever. I wanted to put them in the 13ish range, but Gonzaga barely snuck by bad Patty Mills-less St.Mary’s and San Fran, and got wrecked at home to Memphis. UCLA just got swept in Arizona, and Louisville lost by like 45 to Notre Dame. I put BYU higher than anyone else, so the extra push to 11 would probably have been excessive.

LIterally, I stared at the #`11 spot for like 15 minutes. I just couldn’t find anyone who fit, at least more than Kansas.

Oh, well.

by rockchalk on Feb 16, 2009 1:58 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

take any and all awards you can get.

Any press is good press, right?

I just got back from your mom's basement.

by Warden11 on Feb 16, 2009 2:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I suppose.

I would usually be bugged by getting the homer award, but looking at the vote distribution, someone had them at 8, three at 9, another at 10 and three others (besides me) put them at 11. So, it wasn’t like I was on an island, or anything, ranking them that high.

I didn’t want to sound homer, but there is a distinct chance we really are a Top 11 team. We’re better than most anyone expected coming into the season.

by rockchalk on Feb 16, 2009 2:07 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Just for fun, here is how the rankings look using JUST an aggregate of KenPom and Sagarin:

1) UNC
2) UCONN
3) Memphis
t-4) Pitt
t-4) Duke
6) West Virginia
7) Missouri
8) UCLA
9) Arizona State
10) Louisville
11) Gonzaga
12) Michigan State
13) Kansas
14) Oklahoma
15) BYU
16) Wake
17) Purdue
18) Villanova
19) Clemson
20) Washington
t-21) Illinois
t-21) Georgetown
23) Xavier
24) Marquette
25) Texas

(27) Utah

I didn’t slide any team down-or-up more than five spots: Duke from t-4th to 9th, UCLA from 8th to 13th, Louisville from 10th to 15th, Michigan State 12th to 7th, Clemson from 19th to 24th. Except for Oklahoma, who I put at #4, while only being ranked #14 by the computers.

Oklahoma is the real point-of-contention between numbers-friendly pollsters (and basketball fans, I suppose) and more traditional, they-are-25-1 fans. Both ways are partially correct, I think, as I do think Oklahoma is one of the ten best teams in the country. They aren’t a legitimate Final Four contender, though. For reasons I want to detail sometime before the NCAA Tournament…

by rockchalk on Feb 16, 2009 4:00 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

OU, etc.

That’s interesting- I look forward to reading that. In my eyes, they are far more complete than UNC, the numbers’ darling. My only real issue with OU is the inconsistent production from the point guard spot- dunno if Austin Johnson is a Final Four pg.

Has anybody watched Memphis since they moved Tyreke Evans to pg? People are saying it was some kind of miracle cure for that team. I’m hesitant to get too enthused when they play in that terrible conference.

by KennyGregoryRockThaCradle on Feb 16, 2009 4:19 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Patillo is a great addition for Oklahoma.

Great athlete who hits the boards, takes a lot of pressure off Griffen. He was impressive in the last game of theirs I watched. Was debating redshirting like Mario Little, but decided this year could be special so he’s playing. They seem sloppy and a bit disinterested against weaker teams, but bring it when it counts. They seem to have a great chance at a 1 seed.

by hunter s. royal on Feb 16, 2009 5:42 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

ESPN's bracketology has KU as a three seed.

I hadn’t checked in on that in a while and was pretty surprised to see them rated that highly. The Jayhawks just never take a year off.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Feb 18, 2009 9:40 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I still can't even believe...

a 3 seed is in play…there was a time this year where we were talking about the slim possibility of missing the tourney or getting in as an 8-9

Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.

by Denverjhawk on Feb 18, 2009 10:47 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It does seem high to me also,

but I haven’t been following the season closely enough to know how improved the team really is over where they were back in November.

I’m glad to see my alma mater (Dayton) is pretty well a lock. Who knows, my loyalties might be divided one day this March. I could see UD and KU as mid seeds in the same bracket.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Feb 18, 2009 11:26 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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