Are Turnovers a Problem for this Team? Maybe...
by Warden11 on Dec 22, 2009 10:57 AM CST
7 comments
Undefeated season here we come! As Bensa said, We're All Thinking It. However, the thoughts might be getting a little cloudy as the season progresses and a few flaws start to show themselves during games. Not to mention, Texas looking like a dynamite team so far this season. Anyway, one of those flaws that has bothered me up to this point in the season is turnovers. Being a fan means that I often get an idea stuck in my head and won't let go of it until I see proof that my idea is stupid. So is my fear of the turnover irrational right now?
It sure looks like it. There are a few red flags for the Jayhawks at the moment, but they don't seem to be any different than any of Bill Self's previous teams. And as we all know, Bill Self's teams are pretty damn good. First graph, Self coached teams assists and turnovers.
The chart doesn't show a whole lot other than his teams seem to be around 14-15 turnovers a game and have historically averaged a few more assists than turnovers every game. Obviously, a positive assist to turnover ratio is a good thing. Is it a great thing? Looking at the seasons where his teams had a negative assist to turnover ratio, his winning percentages were three of the five lowest for the thirteen seasons displayed. Of course Bill Self is one of the best coaches in the nation, so those percentages are still .750, .697, and .613. Not too bad. One last thing to notice, 2007-2008 and 2002-2003 (at Illinois). We know 07-08 was a great year and 02-03 resulted in a 25-7 record (.781%).
How does this year's team compare to his teams from the past?
The Jayhawks are averaging 19.3 assists to 12.1 turnovers per game so far. Honestly, that's much better than I expected. Taking out the Alcorn State and Tennessee Tech games, the numbers are still impressive at 17 assists to 11.75 turnovers per game. Notice the two games where the ratio isn't positive? Doesn't take a rocket surgeon (that's for you RC) to know that teams will struggle when that happens. Here's to hoping we don't see it again this season because pulling that against a better team could be really bad.
The last thing to look at is the turnover rate for this team compared to Bill Self's previous teams because as fetch9 taught us in his TFS post, per game stats don't always tell the best story. The numbers will go back to Self's first year at Illinois to this year.
Bill Self's team are pretty consistent, average right around 20%. This year's team is averaging 17%, so not a problem. Looks like turnovers aren't hurting us, yet. Those numbers from the Memphis and UCLA game have me uncomfortable going forward. What caused those games to be bad?
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I think this is a very important stat.
KU won’t face very many teams that can beat them out right. Maybe Texas, possible K-State on the road. Beyond that . . . .
So, the only way most of the teams KU faces will be able to stay competitive is if they are able to force turnovers and get some easy baskets. It was interesting to listen to Coach Self on the radio last night. He fielded a call from a fan that was asking why Morningstar was playing in the second half with the offense struggling instead a more potent offensive option like Elijah Johnson. Self said that he felt more comfortable with Morningstar’s ball handling and defense than Johnson’s. Those strengths of Morningstar could affect the teams TO/Assist ratio going forward into the season.
The other possibility is that he might help the overall ball handling of the team, but since they are getting ready to face tougher competition in the Big 12 we won’t see a dramatic change in the numbers.
Thanks for the shoutout, Warden!
I agree that turnovers are an important stat. We’ll have to keep measuring that stat as the level of competition continues to increase. Tonight’s game, plus upcoming tilts against Temple and Tennessee will tell us a lot about where this team is. If we make it through the non-con season undefeated, winning this battle will be a big reason why, especially against a team like Tennessee, which plays a helter-skelter/frantic style not too dissimilar to Missouri’s.
Great stuff, as always.
Operation 40-0 is a go. Proceed to target.
Forgot about the Tennessee game
That will be a good test.
Forgot about the Tennessee game
That will be a good test.
Bob Knight made a great point tonight during the game
Saying that it isn’t realistic for KU to average a very low turnover total with the way we play (getting out on fast breaks, etc). I think that is something to keep in mind compared to big10 style teams who score 51 points a game and run the half court over and over.
Love that graph though. Definitely shows that the inexperienced teams needed time to cut over the turnovers, and how success can be tied to the overall amount.
Reasons to feel better about the TO situation going forward:
1. As already noted, Brady rarely turns the ball over, and is a pretty good passer
2. Tyshawn appears to have gotten out of the funk he was in earlier this season, and hopefully can continue to be our primary ball-handler.
3. The newcomers will only get better as they get more comfortable with the offense and with what they can and cannot do at the D-1 college level.
4. Hopefully Cole can get healthy from his bronchitis and become a dominant force inside that limits his TOs, as well.
"Here are our top priorities: recruit, beat Missouri, recruit, win the North, recruit, win the Big 12, and in most cases if you win the Big 12 then you're playing for a National Championship. And then we're going to recruit."
by KennyGregoryRockThaCradle on Dec 26, 2009 1:44 AM CST reply actions
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