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Interpeting and Extrapolating - A Retrospective/Forward Look on the First Five Games

If you take a look at individual leaders in the various statistical categories, you won’t find a Jayhawk in the top five. Points per game, assists, rebounds, and shooting percentage all boast the names of players outside Lawrence. Yet, in terms of team categories, Kansas ranks third in scoring offense (90.3) and fourth in 3-point percentage (44.2). It appears that the whole of this Jayhawk team is greater than the sum of its parts.

Granted, these stats are somewhat skewed. According to ESPN’s InsideRPI, Kansas has not played a team in the top 50 and has a strength of schedule that ranks 133 in the nation. That is just a little better than Missouri State and Harvard, and just a little lower than New Mexico State. It’s true, the Jayhawks have been feeding on bottom feeders for the first five games of the season. As such, the bench has been a revolving door for players who won’t see as much time come February and March. Bill Self has been using these early season games as additional tune-ups to mess with matchups and style variations. So, to see that nary a Jayhawk arrives in the top five of the individual categories is not too much of a surprise.

Still, this version of Kansas basketball is fantastically good. Their adjusted scoring margin of 26.9 places them in the same tier as Duke, Syracuse, Texas and Purdue. Nine players are averaging more than 10 minutes a game, and three of them have double-digit points-per-game averages. Xavier is shooting 53% from 3-point range and the team boasts a 1.7/1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

The stats can pile up in favor of a Kansas Jayhawks team that is ready to feast on better competition. Still, on a mere aesthetic level, Bill Self has a team that appears to do everything well. It is always said that a jack of all trades is a master of none. Yet, what happens when a team appears to be a master of all? Visually, the Jayhawks have taken solid grasps of each game played thus far. Even the Memphis game, which eventually went down to the wire, still ran through the game plan that Self had intended. Xavier is living up to expectations. Sherron seems pleased to have some freedom to pass the ball to the open man. Cole is dominating the paint yet again to the tune of averaging just under a double-double in points and rebounds. Even the Morris twins have made vast improvements in the short-range game.

We will see, and begin to understand, a lot more about this Kansas team in the next month or so. Games against Michigan, Tennessee, as well as the begin of conference play, will be true litmus tests to demonstrate how much the Jayhawks can achieve. It is difficult to interpret statistics gleaned from such an easy schedule and extrapolate to determine how great this team actually can be. Still, it appears that at least for the time being, the Jayhawks are just whetting their appetites for a feast in March.

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I always find it interesting when Coach Self compares his teams over time...

recently he commented that this team was no where near as good as the national championship team was at this same point in the season. I suppose that speaks to the competition skewing the numbers and here’s hoping he can bring them along.

Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.

by Owen Kemp on Dec 18, 2009 8:40 AM CST reply actions  

Also...

you mention a “a jack of all trades, master of none” and Kansas appears to be “master of all” at the moment. It’s funny because I did a Q&A with Cal’s SB Nation blog for our game coming up and there were a couple questions where they asked about weaknesses or if we had any holes in our inside game, things like that. I honestly had a hard time answering them. I think in Henry’s case they asked about a weakness teams could exploit with him and my honest answer at the moment was there isn’t one that I’ve seen.

Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.

by Owen Kemp on Dec 18, 2009 8:47 AM CST reply actions  

My only current question with Xavier Henry is

What will he do when teams force him to go to his right? He’s been able to get into the lane almost at will going to his left, his strong hand. I’m not saying his right is as bad as Brandon Rush’s left was, but we’ve not really seen him have to do that yet. He’s got all the tools, and he can use the right hand on layups and moves in the paint, but I’d like to see him take somebody off the dribble to the right.

BTW, I saw Xavier on campus the other day, as he was walking back to the Towers, and my goodness, is that kid huge. Just huge. I could not imagine trying to guard him in a game.

Operation 40-0 is a go. Proceed to target.

by Bensa on Dec 18, 2009 9:31 AM CST up reply actions  

Haha I remember walking past Sherron on campus once

The dude was like a bowling ball. He looks huge in person(the baggy clothes probably added to it) but I was just like damn son. Damn.

by KU Grad 08 on Dec 18, 2009 11:11 AM CST up reply actions  

The nice thing about lefties...

is that it’s really hard for defenders to get into the mentality of forcing someone to their right. This is especially true at the college level- it seemed like Kool Keith Langford could go left whenever he wanted to, which is part of what made him such a successful slasher, IMO.

"Here are our top priorities: recruit, beat Missouri, recruit, win the North, recruit, win the Big 12, and in most cases if you win the Big 12 then you're playing for a National Championship. And then we're going to recruit."

by KennyGregoryRockThaCradle on Dec 18, 2009 12:35 PM CST up reply actions  

X also answers the question

How good would Keith Langford have been if he were a couple inches taller and a better shooter? I give you Xavier Henry.

You’re exactly right about defenders’ tendency to force right. With Xavier’s quickness and strength, he’s able to get around defenders almost at will. Good stuff so far from the younger Henry.

Operation 40-0 is a go. Proceed to target.

by Bensa on Dec 18, 2009 12:55 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't know.

Like Kenny mentioned, Keith was a slasher; that was pretty much his thing. Have we really seen Xavier do much else besides shoot open 3’s and dunk alley-oops? I really want to see him drive off the ball a lot more. Maybe I’m being too harsh (and not to take away from the obvious impact he’s had), but thus far he’s seemed like a much more accurate and more athletic version of JR Giddens.

by knayte on Dec 18, 2009 1:13 PM CST up reply actions  

I can recall

several times this season so far where X has driven the ball into the lane and gone up with either hand in traffic. He doesn’t do it as often as Langford did, for sure, but he has done it multiple times, if I recall correctly.

Operation 40-0 is a go. Proceed to target.

by Bensa on Dec 18, 2009 1:19 PM CST up reply actions  

"If I recall correctly"

The fact that you can’t be certain should show how little he’s done it, haha. But I guess it comes down to the question of if we even need him to be a slasher. We’re certainly not the type of team to just hand the ball to our best player and go “Here do something with this please.” We’re far too talented to ever need to play like that.

by knayte on Dec 18, 2009 1:36 PM CST up reply actions  

WARNING: Numbers ahead

X is tied for second on the team in FTAs with Marcus Morris with 34. Cole leads the team with 40. As a guard, that suggests to me that X is doing a good job of getting to the hoop, since fouling a jump shooter is a Cardinal Sin in the game of basketball, and therefore doesn’t happen as often as when someone is attacking the rim.

"Here are our top priorities: recruit, beat Missouri, recruit, win the North, recruit, win the Big 12, and in most cases if you win the Big 12 then you're playing for a National Championship. And then we're going to recruit."

by KennyGregoryRockThaCradle on Dec 18, 2009 3:33 PM CST up reply actions  

Thanks, KGRTC!

Always nice when the numbers bear out what I thought was the case. That said, I think X has gotten fouled on at least 2 3-point shots this year so far, so he does occasionally get the Cardinal Sin treatment.

Operation 40-0 is a go. Proceed to target.

by Bensa on Dec 18, 2009 7:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Wasn't Langford like 6'4 though?

I don’t remember him being all that short, maybe thats just me. He was a terrible three point shooter. My frosh year (the year we lost to Bucknell) every game I went to there were possessions were langford, Giddeons, maybe even Miles at times would jack 4 threes in one possession (because we’d keep getting the rebound) and brick shot after shot).

by KU Grad 08 on Dec 18, 2009 2:19 PM CST up reply actions  

Langford was listed at 6'4"

but the kid couldn’t have been taller than 6’3" if even that. And no, he wasn’t a good shooter at all. Great slasher to the hoop, though, and often had ice-water veins at the FT line.

Anyway, regarding the size, Langford played bigger than he was because of his leaping ability, but X really IS as big as he needs to be to be a dominant small forward in college and a legit 2 or 3 at the next level.

Operation 40-0 is a go. Proceed to target.

by Bensa on Dec 18, 2009 7:07 PM CST up reply actions  

IMO, here are a couple of remaining question marks on this year’s team:

1. Competition level- the fact of the matter is, we barely beat Memphis. We’ve got to be able to beat very good to even great teams.

2. Setting a rotation- once Withey and Morningstar get into the mix, how will everything shake out? Will people embrace their roles, or fight against them? If people don’t like where they’re at on the roster, will they work their butts off in practice to try to earn more playing time, or will they pout and become a negative impact on team chemistry?

3. Feeding Cole- I know HCBS talks about this a lot, and he seems to think this will improve with Brady back in the mix. But Cole needs more touches, and he needs “better touches,” that is, getting the ball in positions where he can be successful. When he’s on, Aldrich is, IMO, the one weapon we have that no other college team has an answer for. The more our guards understand that, the more everyone will benefit.

4. Defense- on paper, this team has been good defensively- holding teams down around 40% fg, getting lots of blocks and steals, etc. But I think they could do a lot better job on the perimeter especially of preventing their man from getting past them. Cole does a nice job of erasing some mistakes that allow dribble penetration. But really good teams will be able to take advantage of the dribble-drive and find open players, either at the 3 point line, or whomever Cole comes off of to try to get the shotblock.

"Here are our top priorities: recruit, beat Missouri, recruit, win the North, recruit, win the Big 12, and in most cases if you win the Big 12 then you're playing for a National Championship. And then we're going to recruit."

by KennyGregoryRockThaCradle on Dec 18, 2009 12:45 PM CST reply actions  

I think when Morningstar returns

The Prophet and Relly Ice lose a lot of time to the Hangover (my friends and I call a hungover morning a morningstar, and in turn call him the Hangover). Self has made it clear that Hangover is going to get a lot of PT, so I’d say Sherron and Tyshawn start, Morningstar spells Tyshawn and Xman.

Don’t see Whithey contributing this year if TRob continues to develop or the Morri get hurt but thats just me.

by KU Grad 08 on Dec 18, 2009 2:22 PM CST up reply actions  

+1 in general

my qualm would be that the defense seems just OK. granted i don’t get to see the squad on TV that often, but when I have they certainly haven’t looked dominant or even just shutting other teams down for good stretches. some of that is probably a lack of intensity in games that just aren’t that close, but if the mentality isn’t there for all-D all-the-time then it’s not just going to materialize when conference play comes around.

You used to know me as benf.... Now you know my true identity...MacGyver

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 18, 2009 6:05 PM CST reply actions  

welcome MacGyver...

If you are ever looking for the game and don’t have it on tv…I usually post a link on our open threads for an online feed.

Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.

by Owen Kemp on Dec 18, 2009 7:31 PM CST up reply actions  

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