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Around SBN: NFL Week One: Previews and Predictions for all 15 games

A TFS Analysis Of The 09-10 Jayhawks

First off, I had no idea what to call this, so that was fun. Second off, I'm writing this at 1:30 so if I say something that's super dumb/wrong take it easy on me.

Before I get too far into it, for those of you who aren't familiar with tempo free stats there are good explanations here and here. Basically, they are better than ppg stats because they don't take how fast a team plays into account.

I wasn't sure if I should just post random thoughts on this year's team, or compare them to the 2008 National Championship team (because there are a ton of player comparisons that are almost eerie), so as a result I ended up doing a little bit of both.

Star-divide

1. Cole Aldrich hasn't been that bad offensively

Last year Cole's O-Rating was 123.9, which was 44th nationally, and this year it has "slipped" to 122.9. His true shooting percentage has slipped a bit, mainly because he is shooting almost 10% worse from the free throw line this year than he did last year, but I would expect him to be right there as we get into conference play. He's also been a much better defensive rebounder this year, which is semi unexpected because with the improvement of the Morri there is more competition for rebounds.

2. Thomas Robinson needs to relax

T-Rob has shown flashes of tremendous potential. In his limited minutes he's actually the best offensive and defensive rebounder we have this year. In fact, if he had enough minutes to qualify, he would have been the fourth best offensive rebounder in the country last year with his numbers. However, Robinson has looked a little lost with the ball in his hands. He has just a 46% true shooting percentage, dragged down by having roughly the same percentage from two (45.9%) as he does from the free throw line (45.5%). Given that he draws by far the most fouls on the team per 40 mins, he needs to improve from the line. He also, when on the floor, ends over one fourth of the possessions, which is the most on the team. Basically what this means is that he either makes a shot, misses a shot that isn't offensively rebounded, or turns it over.

3. Tyshawn is actually taking care of the ball better this year

Last year T2 had an assist rate of 20.6 and a TO rate of 25.6. This year his assist rate has gone up (23.9) while his turnover rate has gone down (23.5). The biggest problem with T2's game this year has been his shooting. Both his EFG and his TS% have gone down over 10%. I'm not saying the guy is the best player on the team, but I am saying that perhaps we should give him a bit of a break. Of course, part of my irrational love for T2 is because of his striking similarities to Russell Robinson (high assists, high turnovers, can't shoot, elite defense), and Robinson is one of my most favorite Jayhawks in recent memory.

Last but not least, although our offense has looked bad at times, we have the 2nd best offense in the country, at 124.1 points per 100 possessions. While it's true that some of it can be looked at as we fattened up against weak competition, most of it has to do with a lack of turnovers, great offensive rebounding, and an improvement in three point shooting from last year.

Actually my real last point is about our pace. We can legitimately go 10 deep (and even more when you consider CJ has played well in limited time, and Teahan has given us solid minutes), so the fact that we are playing at only a slightly above average pace (70.4 possessions compared to D1 average of 68.7 possessions) is disconcerting to me. With our depth we should be trying to run teams out of the gym. And we should be running with our talent advantage as well, as general philosophy states that the more talented a team is, the faster it should play.

In all, there are tons of positives to look at with Kansas, and given that we are still very young (299th in experience), we're only going to get better.

P.S. For the record, KenPom gives us a 2.08% chance of an undefeated regular season.

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Interesting Stuff.

Could you explain the turnover and assist rate numbers a little more? That can’t be per 40 minutes, can it? Or is TT averaging 23+ turnovers a full game???

Also, what do the numbers tell you about X? Obviously he’s been good, but how good?

"Here are our top priorities: recruit, beat Missouri, recruit, win the North, recruit, win the Big 12, and in most cases if you win the Big 12 then you're playing for a National Championship. And then we're going to recruit."

by KennyGregoryRockThaCradle on Dec 15, 2009 2:12 AM CST reply actions  

sure

Assist rate is simply (assists / field goals made while the player is on the court).

Turnover rate is a little more complicated. It’s basically turnovers per possessions used. Average for TO rate is usually around 20%, but players who handle the ball a lot are usually closer to 25% (which should make you pee your pants when you see what Sherron is doing so far)

As for X…wow. He’s been the 14th best shooter in the country this year, and the 6th best from someone in a major conference. His assists/turnovers stuff isn’t great (although for someone who handles the ball as much as he does, his TOs are fine now that I think about it) , and his rebounding is just average, but shooting wise he’s been incredible.

by fetch9 on Dec 15, 2009 11:04 AM CST up reply actions  

Good stuff fetch...

I still worry about these numbers being inflated by weak competition. X has been great this year, but no one has forced him to go right yet…I want to see him/us against a real, live defense.

The pace doesn’t concern me as much, because Bill never lets us run early in the year. If we aren’t running more by league play, that would concern me some.

by hiphopopotamus on Dec 15, 2009 11:50 AM CST reply actions  

Interesting stuff...

the “Cole isn’t looking so hot” bandwagon seems to be filling up lately. It’s interesting to see that by some measures he’s right on target with last year for the most part.

Thanks for doing the legwork

Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.

by Owen Kemp on Dec 15, 2009 11:54 AM CST reply actions  

Cole's problem seems to be more that we (or I did) had higher offensive expectations.

He’s never really been a huge offensive juggernaut, just a guy with a good shoot and a great trashman. What I’m more disappointed in is that he looks just like he did last year.

I used to work with an old man that told me- Son, every workplace has a dumbass. If you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.

by Warden11 on Dec 15, 2009 11:59 AM CST up reply actions  

2.08% chance of going undefeated....

So you’re telling me there’s a chance?

by jco8394 on Dec 15, 2009 1:46 PM CST reply actions  

If I recall correctly

somebody here’s been calling an undefeated season for some time…

Operation 40-0 is a go. Proceed to target.

by Bensa on Dec 15, 2009 7:57 PM CST up reply actions  

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