Hey Bill- Schedule Someone (Good) Please!
by Warden11 on Dec 12, 2009 3:08 PM CST
15 comments
As Jayhawk fans are glued to various blogs, message boards, and other news sources waiting for Lew to make his big hire, the basketball team (yes, KU has a basketball team) is rolling along steamrolling inferior programs at home. The Jayhawks have played a couple of good programs, Memphis (neutral) and on the road at UCLA. However, the majority of the teams we are seeing aren't giving us much of a glimpse as to how this team will handle the good teams in the Big 12 and NCAA tournament. Why is Coach Self filling the schedule with creampuffs? Lets compare the super weak schedule to that of North Carolina and Kentucky, two other teams who have a realistic goal of cutting down the nets as One Shining Moment is played by CBS.
For the comparison of this year's schedule, I took the first 15 games for the three teams. Looked up their opponents final ranking in 2009 according to KenPom. Results after the jump.
Kansas' opponents average KenPom ranking at the end of 2009 was 123. That number was lower than I expected, but it does include Memphis' number 2 finish and UCLA's number 12. Those two schools aren't likely to finish that high this year. Memphis (2) was obviously the highest ranked team followed by UCLA (12), Tennessee (31), Cal (32), Temple (47), and Michigan (50).
North Carolina has played a brutal schedule this year, right? The average KenPom 2009 ranking is 151. Much worse than expected. Carolina's schedule includes games with Michigan St (8), Syracuse (15), Texas (23), and Ohio State (37). Wait, they also played Kentucky who finished last year at 52. Kentucky appears to be looking at a much stronger finish this year.
Kentucky is the last school I looked at, how are they challenging Calipari and Wall? Average KenPom finish for their opponents in 2009 was 140. Once again, a worse average than expected. Kentucky's schedule has included UNC (1), UConn (3), and Stanford (49). Three schools in the top 50?
In the end, I guess KU's schedule hasn't been any weaker than schools in a similar situation. The Jayhawks haven't played the top flight schools this year, but they were scheduled. Memphis and UCLA looked like huge games when they were scheduled. Facing six teams that finished 2009 in the top 50 before even getting to conference play is impressive.
Notes: Used KenPom rankings because they're easy. Only looked at these three schools because it's December and I haven't done any Christmas shopping. Might come back and look at the top 10 or Big 12 in the future.
Update: Changed the graphs, I think these are a better representation of what I want them to show.
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Not sure why KU fans keep pissing and moaning about the schedule
To clear this up, here is the deal. We don’t schedule these games right before the season starts and go “oh hey that team is number 12 lets get them” we scheduled Memphis and UCLA who are traditionally very good, Cal, Michigan, Tennessee who the past few years have been pretty solid, and a bevy of teams that will make/have a shot at the tourny from smaller leagues Hofstra, Temple, Belmont, Cornell, Radford
definitely
I am hearing a lot of talk about this and it’s simply not fair to judge this stuff.
KuGrad lays it out very nicely.
If Cal doesn’t leave Memphis, that game is a matchup up of 2 top 10 teams. Playing at UCLA is a hell of a matchup to schedule and unluckily for them, they’ve had a lot of guys leave early and so they have to try to reload.
Playing quality teams like Cal and MIchigan is good too and then @ Tennessee, a very athletic team is a big time matchup.
Then I also really agree with the last part of your point. Hofstra, Belmont, Radford, Cornell, Oakland and then @ Temple are all teams that either won their league last season or are favored to win it again this year. These are the types of teams that we will likely face in a first round game. Are they top 25 caliber opponents? No, but they are well-coached teams with good players. In some eyes, they may look like scrubs, but people that follow college basketball should realize these are quality opponents with different styles that will help us advance come tourney time.
by I need more Esteban on Dec 12, 2009 2:00 PM CST up reply actions
Aye
Besides, all that matters is we are tested and hitting on all cylinders for the NCAA tournament, and a loaded Big12 is going to make that happen
Brilliant post, Warden!
Couldn’t agree more. KU Grad is exactly right too, because these games are scheduled long in advance. HCBS likes about 3 true road games against legit competition (UCLA, Temple, Tennessee this year), and a few games against BCS conferences or similar (Cal, Michigan, Memphis). Then, you schedule the other 9 or so home games that you know you will sell out for and make your normal revenue. It’s a formula that we’ve had for many years under HCBS, and while it results in some grumbling, it has been effective.
It does concern me, however, that the only games we’re not going to be favored (or at least by much) are @Tennessee and @Texas. The Big XII is gonna be tough, but I just hope we get enough tough games to be team tested by the tournament. I think we’ll be okay, and playing two against K-State & Mizzou, plus A&M, Tech, Baylor, OU, etc. should provide plenty of quality competition.
Operation 40-0 is a go. Proceed to target.
When you are the runaway #1 team
you should be favored in all your games.
My guess is that Bill keeps pushing the team to get better and better, regardless of who the opponent is, or whether the court is in Allen or the practice court.
There's a certain truth
in the thinking that practice scrimmages are as competitive or more so than the actual games sometimes. Our depth is astonishing.
Operation 40-0 is a go. Proceed to target.
I have to say...
I’m surprised, thanks for doing the legwork Warden.
Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.
I'm as guilty of anyone for not liking the early season games so far.
But after looking at this info and accepting what happened with both Memphis and UCLA, I realized it’s a similar schedule across the top programs. The Big 12 is plenty tough to prepare the team for the tourney, so it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to kill yourself in the preseason for some quality games. You won’t earn a number 1 seed in November and December, but you can sure as hell lose one.
I used to work with an old man that told me- Son, every workplace has a dumbass. If you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
I'd just like to have us be involved in more big games.
I want Duke. I want Kentucky. I want a second Texas game on a neutral court every year.
But more than that, I don’t see the point of playing the really bad teams (basically, every one worse than Hofstra we’ve played this year). Let’s play more mid-majors- when was the last time we played any of the Missouri Valley teams? Why not play Creighton or Wichita State in KC instead of La Salle?
Even if UCLA had been good this year, we’re still only looking at three, maybe four really good non-conference games. And only two of those would be true road games.
When you’re a favorite, every NCAA tournament game is basically a road game, since any fan in the building with no rooting interest in either team is going to side with the underdog. I just worry if we’ll be properly prepared for that type of environment.
RODD TEESING, my arch-nemesis! Give us back our TODD, you rapscallion!
by KennyGregoryRockThaCradle on Dec 13, 2009 12:02 AM CST reply actions
To me, the Big 12 schedule takes care of this.
I just worry if we’ll be properly prepared for that type of environment.
At Manhattan is a tough environment these days, at Mizzou is always tough, have to go into a few of the south schools every year. Throw those games in with a couple of tough early season games and it turns out to be a pretty tough schedule.
I used to work with an old man that told me- Son, every workplace has a dumbass. If you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
I recall a few years ago
when Simien, Langford and Miles were seniors (obviously a season that ended in disappointment). We had the #1 RPI all year long because nearly every one of the no-name non-BCS home games we had that year were the tournament representatives from their respective conferences (teams like N. Arizona, Louisiana Lafayette, etc.). HCBS doesn’t go out looking for the bottom feeders from these conferences. He looks for those who are historically at the top of their conferences (Hofstra, Cornell, Oakland, etc.) because it helps in the end that they’ve played a bunch of tournament teams, even though they’re not from BCS conferences. Every year one of those no-name non-BCS teams stuns a BCS school in the tournament. Is this year’s schedule a little down? At the moment, it looks like it, but let’s let it play out before throwing it down the drain.
Operation 40-0 is a go. Proceed to target.
Great point.
HCBS doesn’t go out looking for the bottom feeders from these conferences. He looks for those who are historically at the top of their conferences
KU has 9 schools who finished 2009 in the top 105 according to KenPom. Kentucky plays 4 and UNC plays 6. To me, that shows these teams are competitive in their conference and can probably give mediocre major conference teams a tough game.
No excuses for Central Ark and Alcorn St though, I guess sometimes cupcakes are just too good to pass up.
I used to work with an old man that told me- Son, every workplace has a dumbass. If you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
I give him a pass for Alcorn St. and Central Ark.
Those games were set up with the Hall of Fame Classic or whatever the 4-for-1 event in which we played Memphis was. There are only so many schools that are even able to do those tournaments, and with the non-marquee event it was, there weren’t too many schools to choose from, I suspect.
Operation 40-0 is a go. Proceed to target.
a second Texas game on a neutral court every year
I may have dreamed that KU and Texas seem to play for the Big 12 Tournament Championship with regularity.
Chiefs go 9-7. LJ makes 1400 yards. DBowe makes 1200 yards. Defense #18.
10/28--The Koolaid buzz is beginning to wear off. Maybe drop this back to my original thoughts on the year. Chiefs go 6-10 (and that my be optimistic!). LJ gets a restraining order to stay 1400 yards away from the Chiefs. I'll let the rest stand for now. 11/18 Oh My! Dbowe gets a restraining order to stay 1200 yards away from the Chiefs. Argh! Can we go 5-11? Can the defense make #20?
Why is your signature so long?
Self and Barnes have already begun discussions about this possibility, because it’s a fantastic rivalry that deserves more national attention, and that would come with a second game every year.
Putting aside the fact that KU and UT more often than not DON’T play eachother in the Big 12 tournament, those games don’t get the national attention they deserve because every conference has its tournament going on at that time.
RODD TEESING, my arch-nemesis! Give us back our TODD, you rapscallion!
by KennyGregoryRockThaCradle on Dec 13, 2009 12:44 PM CST up reply actions
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