Kansas vs. Texas Tech Team Analysis
by Owen Kemp on Oct 22, 2008 5:59 PM CDT
in Football
23 comments
This week Kansas welcomes Mike Leach and the Texas Tech Red Raiders to Lawrence for homecoming.
This game is HUGE as far as Kansas' season goes. A win this week and the Jayhawks should feel good about their chances of playing for the Big12 North Title in Arrowhead at the end of the season. Lose this game and it's certainly not out of the questions but we do give up the ground that Missouri has yielded early in the conference slate.
So what should we expect? Two offensive juggernauts take the field saturday and you have to wonder does either defense stand a chance? or do we see a shootout between Todd Reesing and Graham Harrel?
A tip for viewing tables and graphics...change your view to wide in SB Nation
Final Take...I expect this one to be a shootout but the Jayhawks are going to be fired up and hungry for a big win. This would be Coach Mangino's first win over a top 10 team at home during his tenure and would signal another step in building the program.
I think we see the ball move early and often and whatever team can capitalize on the mistakes of the others will win this game. In the end Coach Mangino will get the better of his former colleague as his team will be better disciplined, more prepared and better tested for this game.
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Special Teams
Check out the fanpost I just put up for more on Texas Tech’s special teams situation. It’s a doozy.
by KennyGregoryRockThaCradle on Oct 22, 2008 7:11 PM CDT reply actions
Corrections
Sorry, that would be a Fan Shot. And it’s already mentioned in this chart. Still pretty amazing, though.
by KennyGregoryRockThaCradle on Oct 22, 2008 7:15 PM CDT up reply actions
I assume you are speaking to the Kicker that won that contest...
I thought that was pretty interesting as well…I guess you just never know with the kicking position.
Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.
I'm sorry...
you’ll have to explain yourself friend…
Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.
Did a little research...
and it appears you think I’m overly optimistic…I’ll say that’s fair, you like your team and I like mine…I certainly hope you didn’t see it as a slight to the quality of Texas Tech, you guys are a great team, I just feel like this game means a lot to KU and being a home game I give them the edge. Feel free to give me your thoughts, we are open and welcome discussion so I would be interested in your “vaporware…”
Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.
...just a bit
humorous. No, I think every team ought to really support and like their own team. It’s just kinda funny to see hopes under the category of “analysis”. Frankly, I would like it if more Tech bloggers were more supportive of their own team, but alas they generally are more morose and negative – afraid of being let down.
Ok so the analysis. Your analysis really kind of suspends on the “vaporware” that your offense is better than our defense, and our offense is better than your defense – so that evens out. I’ll give you special teams, but history and record don’t allow for the coaching edge to go to you just because OU won a national championship with Mangino as OC.
The problem with your offense versus defense “analysis” is that our offense is way better than your offense, and our defense (especially the run defense) is marginally better than your defense. Which means in a shootout, you miss on at least 2-3 drives (even at home).
Granted Tech has had a couple of bad games, and I suppose you are hoping for that (thus fantasy), but so has Kansas. The difference is that we won our bad games. So a more likely analysis would be that your offense is better than our defense, so you get your teams scoring average (low to mid 30’s). You likely will respond with “strength of schedule”, but the BCS rankings add all that in, and you are 23rd and Tech is 8th. Also, I’ve watched your defense twice this year and it is likely that we score at will against you, because you are pretty bad. So, even if we get our average, we win by two touchdowns. I’ll give you home field advantage, and the fact that every team that has played against Tech plays over their heads for at least a half. So you get a free touchdown. Tech by 7.
Here’s the rub though, and Leach has said it over and over again. In order for this scenario (you lose by 7) to play out, you must play an almost perfect game. Which means you can’t stop Tech’s offense, but you slow it down, and you make every drive you have count (at least in minutes off the clock). You don’t turn over the ball, and you make at least 50% of your third down conversions. Nebraska came closest to this dream, but they turned it over in overtime. Also, it would help if Tech (like at aggie) doesn’t even get off the bus until halftime.
If you play this well, you lose by 7. If not, it could be a long, long day.
My prediction, Tech 42 Kansas 28
But then, I could be biased.
Peace
... I'm just sayin'
I understand that my analysis...
is probably a little biased and does rely on hopes and predicictions, but that’s what this is football fans talking about their football teams. I think you give a great argument for your case.
As for the Coaching argument equal talent for equal talent I do think Mark Mangino is a better planner and motivator of players than Mike Leach…Leach is an amazing X&O’s offensive guy but it’s just my personal opinion on who I want coach my team if all else is equal.
The problem I have with your offense vs. defense arguments is this…it’s never as black & white as comparing stats, numbers and scores…I’m just of the opinion that while KU’s defense isn’t great it will be the best Defense you will face to date… in conference you have played against two of the worst defenses in the conference in A&M and K-State and a Nebraska squad that isn’t up to it’s normal level. Kansas is middle of the road in this category and I just think at home and with the experience of the Oklahoma game under it’s belt we will have a servicable defense. I guess what I’m saying is I think Kansas can stop Texas Tech as well as Tech can stop Kansas so I’m calling it a draw. Because of that this comes down to who makes the mistakes and who capitalizes on the mistakes of others…Last week Kansas was eventually “beat” by OU. At home in such a critical game I think it stays close unless one team doesn’t show up or makes the mental errors to bust it open.
Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.
Everyone is bias to their own team
Saturday afternoon we will be able to see which bias is right, though.
I don’t think that our defense is as “bad” as you say it is. I think our defense is middle of the road in the Big 12, like DenverJhawk said. Where we struggle is with pressure on the quarterback. If we could just get some pressure from the front 4 on the QB then our defense would slide from middle of the road, to somewhere in the top 6. But, one can’t just hope that is going to happen and something drastic would need to change for us to start getting that rush we desire.
Ttech does not give up a lot of sacks so it should be interesting to see what KU does to try and get some pressure. My biased prediction. KU 40 – TTech 32. If the game were in Lubbock, much different story.
by I need more Esteban on Oct 23, 2008 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions
Defense
As I said in another post, I have only listened to/watched to KU games this year, and the defense was pretty bad in those games. In this post, and in one other it has been said,
“Tech doesn’t give up a lot of sacks”
and
“Reesing can scramble and won’t take a sack when Harrell would”.
Harrell has only been sacked ONCE in 2008. With over 370 passes under his belt. I think both of these statements are a bit misleading. Frankly, statistically, Harrell doesn’t get sacked – and he is rarely pressured at all.
I would like to address this idea, again raised on this thread, that a close win to a nobody (like Tech’s wins versus Nebraska and aTm) are better or similar to a loss to a nobody or a marginal team. That doesn’t register.
Aggie kept telling us they were in a better position than Tech because they are rebuilding, while Tech is at their peak and still barely beating some bad teams. USC loses to an unranked team, and they get told “well, you just had a bad day, welcome back to the Top Ten”. Tech has a close call, but is able to pull the game out, and it goes into the negative category… “Hey, you guys BARELY beat Nebraska and had a bad half against aTm”. Maybe I don’t get it. How is winning worse than losing? The fact is that Tech has the longest winning streak in college football. We last lost in November of 2007, and we have two really quality top 20 wins in that time. And this is the same team. Same players, only better.
I think KU should get credit for all their wins, even against poor teams. And they should take their knocks when they lose. Tech is likely to lose 2 of the next 4. I hope not, but it is likely. If we win 3 of those 4, then all the better. We will get punched in the nose for whatever loss it is… OU, OSU, KU, UT. But why are we still getting pummeled for winning games other top 10 teams have lost this year? Alabama barely squeaks by an unranked team by 4 and they don’t drop in the rankings or get smacked in the mouth. Penn State has a real bad 3 quarters and pulls ahead in the 4th quarter to win last week… nothing. Tech is winning games and not losing them. I think that is good, but I am a simple Texas farmer.
Mark my words and all you KU fans ought to think about this… If KU plays a dynamite game but barely loses to Tech, every sportswriter in the country is going to beat up Tech and talk about how sorry KU is. I don’t think that is right. Nebraska played a nearly perfect game against Tech and they should get credit for it. aTm played a dynamite game against Tech for 1 half before reality struck. They should be commended for playing a great game against a top 10 team. If (and I do say if) Kansas loses a good, close game to Tech, I hate to see you guys on the other side of the anti-Tech east coast media bias. KU has a good team, and they will have every reason to play well against a top 10 team. If they win, they will have beaten a really good Tech team and they will deserve all the credit. If they lose, go ahead and write this down… Tech AND KU will be getting savaged next week. You read it here first.
Peace
... I'm just sayin'
preaching to the choir...
with the media bias thing…I think most of the Big 12 minus OU and Texas faces this.
Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.
For the record
I didn’t say that “"Reesing can scramble and won’t take a sack when Harrell would". I said "Tech gives up a lot of sacks”. Just clarifying that the contradictory statements were made by 2 different people.
by I need more Esteban on Oct 24, 2008 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions
Ok...
I understand that you just choose to call it a draw, though a thorough analysis gives that category to Tech. Let’s look at home field advantage, which I freely gave to Kansas…
Record in the series since the inception of the Big-12: Tech 9 KS 1
Tech’s record in Lawrence: 5-0
So you are basing a lot of your desire to call this a draw on “vaporware”, hope and faith and facts that don’t really exist in the real world. However, I do appreciate your willingness to do so. Like I said, it’d be nice if Tech bloggers were that way.
Tech’s defense against the run is one of the best in the nation. Our pass defense is a “bend but don’t break” defense that makes everyone cringe, but which has continuously shown that they do what it takes when it matters. Again, we played some horrible games that cost us in the polls, but in the same type of games – Kansas lost. Y’all played great against OU, but I believe our offense is better than OU’s and I know our quarterback is better. In order to beat the spread you have to pressure the QB and no one has pressured Harrell yet, and Kansas doesn’t have the staff to do it.
So, granted that you are supporting your team (which I like) and you hope for the best (again, kudos), the analysis doesn’t swing the way you’d like.
Now they have to play on the field. A field, by the way, where Tech has a decided (5-0) advantage.
I look forward to a really good game, and if it turns into a shootout, it should be a screamer.
Peace
... I'm just sayin'
It's been 2 years since we've played tech and Kansas is a different program now...
not to the level of Tech, OU, Texas and those yet but we are improved over two years ago….
Also understand that if I do probably come accross as overly optimistic, much of that might have to do with the fact that I have a hard time being overly critical of collegiate student athletes. These guys work their asses off for nothing, deserve our support, and some read this blog.
As far as my calling it a draw when a thorough analysis would give the edge to Tech…you might be right. But I was simply comparing offense to defense…I didn’t discuss which offense would beat which defense more. I guess if you take it at face value all I really said is this is going to be a fast paced high scoring game where the winner is the one that makes fewer mistakes. Perhaps I need to include a more thorough breakdown in the future and I thank you for that suggestion.
Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.
You can definitely throw past records out in this one
Your defense against the run has not earned their one of the “best in the nation” titles yet because of who they’ve played. For some reason, K-State chose to not run the ball against you guys when they clearly should have (they don’t run against anyone, though) I will, however, grant them that distinction if they do well in this gauntlet they’re about to face.
You can’t be too happy with the results of your last 2 Big 12 contests, can you? Granted, a win is a win however it may come. But a home win in overtime to Nebraska? Nebraska is better but I think TTech should’ve won that more handily. Then the A&M game? A&M is awful. But, if anyone can understand not coming out and playing well in the first half it is KU fans after our showing against Iowa St. in the first half. I guess my point is that I’m a little surprised in the confidence that you have in this game because of the lack of competition and the outcome of the last 2 games against inferior competition.
This has already been talked about some, I respect the confidence in your team and probably shouldn’t expect anything less than a prediction of a victory.
by I need more Esteban on Oct 23, 2008 10:02 AM CDT up reply actions
I think Tech and KU have a similar defensive style with the “bend but don’t break”. However, I think we have a better back seven than Tech, and I don’t consider that too close. No, we don’t have anyone capable of stopping Crabtree on any type of consistent basis, but we do have one of the top Big XII safeties in Stuckey. I think Harris/Stuckey can and will slow him to an extent. However, Tech doesn’t have anyone that can stop Briscoe either. Now, I’m not intimately familiar with the Tech DBs, but the KU back 7 is a better group than Tech’s. I don’t expect a ton of pressure on either QB, especially Tech’s, but I feel Reesing is creative enough in the pocket to avoid a sack or two that Harrell would take. Neither team has much of a run game to off-set their prolific passing attack, but KU’s run game is hitting it’s stride. (the game in Norman started to slip away when Sharp exited the game for a few series in the 3rd). I think this game will be close, but I don’t feel the Tech poster knows anything about KU other than Reesing, and I don’t feel that Tech has enough to stop KU who played catch at will vs. Oklahoma and South Florida. (Jake Sharp also RAN at will against OU).
Also, the “better coach” topic should not be any debate. One of the coaches has national recognition as the “COACH OF THE YEAR” for the 2007 season. As far as doing more with less, just look at the recruiting area and level of “stars” the recruits get initially. KU CLEARLY does more with less, and Mangino also happens to be the reigning COACH OF THE YEAR (did I mention that already? We will set aside the BCS bowl win and the whole National Title thing he won previously)
I think you're point about
doing more with less is a good one about Mangino. I don’t think there is much of an argument that Tech might have the better players. But coaching might have to go to Mangino because of what he has done at Kansas with the lesser talent. Leach obviously had his number in Lawrence 3 years ago when we gave up that huge lead and let Tech come back and win. I was in the stands that day in the student section and it still haunts me. Since then, though, we have closed a lot of the gap as far as talent goes so let’s hope that will be the difference this Saturday.
by I need more Esteban on Oct 23, 2008 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions
+1
on the coach of the year award comment…I’ve mentioned that in past weeks coaching edge section. I thought I would change it up this week and give a new reason why I thought mangino was better but I guess going forward I will have to leave the COACH OF THE YEAR recognition in there for folks like our friend antiswarm who seem to have forgotten about it.
Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.
...thoughts
Agreed, if Reesing is allowed to run around and make things happen, he’ll do well. But you might want to do some checking on Tech’s running game. Tech has a dynamite pair of running backs and for the first time in recent memory they have been averaging well over 100 yards a game on the ground. Once upon a time, that used to mean something. I don’t see Kansas stopping Batch, and Tech defense has done very well stopping the run going back to the second half of last season. I’ve only listened to/watched two Kansas games and in both the offense (inferior offenses to Tech) pretty much moved the ball at will. The problem with taking one or two good DB’s to stop Crabtee, is that Tech has about 11 guys who are all world class receivers, and if you’ll look at the stats, Crabtree hasn’t really been the dominant part of the offense as he has in the past. In fact, although his season stats are good, in each individual game he is usually the #2 or #3 receiver in yards.
As for Mangino getting the edge, that is hard to fathom. If, as y’all have said, the past doesn’t mean anything, then maybe you are right… except Kansas is 5-2. I don’t have any other way to judge who gets the edge here if we throw out the past records. Mangino is a bit better than 56% since becoming a head coach in the Big 12 and a good portion of those wins were last year. Leach is over 72% wins since being a head coach in the Big 12, with a majority of those games against the Big 12 south. Tech is the only team with a winning record every year since the inception of the Big 12, and a majority of those years have been with Leach at the helm.
I agree KU does more with less. And I believe they will play better than they actually are against Tech, which should worry us. We don’t get to play these things on paper.
To me, this game comes down to a couple key issues:
1. Will the home field advantage be an advantage? It hasn’t against Tech in the past, but, as you say, this is a whole new team.
2. Can KU put pressure on Harrell. Y’all have said that you don’t expect much pressure, and I don’t either. Harrell has been sacked once all year, with over 373 passes under his belt. If KU can do it, then it’ll be a long day for Tech.
3. Can KU stop Batch and Woods (the run) while still keeping enough folks back to at least slow down the Tech passing attack?
4. KU MUST control the ball. They really cannot afford to get in a flat out shootout. A bit of a shootout maybe, but they need to have the ball at least 8-10 minutes more than Tech does.
5. Turnovers will likely determine the winner. Tech has not turned over the ball much, but had several interceptions against aTm.
KU did well against OU. But in the end, OU hung over 40 on y’all. OU has a much better defense than Tech, but I feel Tech’s offense is much better than OU’s. That said, if Tech scores more than 40, in my opinion, they win.
The wayyyyyy downside for Tech…
Ok, we don’t wake up until 2pm, and usually don’t show up until halftime. KU can really do themselves a favor by scoring early and scoring often. Or by playing the Nebraska tactic and making some 8 minute scoring drives.
Peace
... I'm just sayin'
I don't discount the Tech running game...
as I mentioned the way KU can possibly win the battle against the Tech offense is to find a way to stop that run game and keep it one dimensional.
I think your right on point with your keys to the game and so is DoubleTNations post 5 ways Kansas can win.
There are a lot of wild cards for both teams but I think the one that everyone continues to bring up and it’s interesting that both sides bring it up is a fear of turnovers. Everyone has said Turnovers will determine the winner and while that is somewhat cliche and typically the case in any football game I think we can all agree that in a game featuring to extrememly potent offenses this is even more the case.
Great points again anitswarm and I do appreciate the banter these past couple days, it’s been fun and informative because I have to admit other than the K-State game I haven’t seen much TTech where I live and it sounds like for many Tech fans last week may have been the first time you’ve seen Kansas this year.
Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.
good points antiswarm
I think the key for KU is obviously control some clock and don’t get into a shootout with the number 1 shootout team in the country.
by I need more Esteban on Oct 24, 2008 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions
the question is CAN the Jayhawks keep it from being a shootout??? Our offense is fast, moves quickly and isn’t really designed to control the clock, it will take a big commitment to the run and short passing game to make it happen…Hello Kerry Meier and Jake Sharp
Some people are like Slinkies...not really good for anything but they make you smile when pushed down the stairs.
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